Critical Minerals and the Energy Transition: The Ecosystem Imperative

Introduction

Why coordination, not scarcity, will decide who benefits

The energy transition has a minerals problem, and it is not what most people assume. From the copper belts of Africa to lithium deserts in South America, and processing hubs in Australia and Europe, the issue is not that the rocks are scarce.The issue is that decisions do not line up.

Miners struggle to justify capital programmes without bankable offtake. Processors hesitate to build refineries without guaranteed feedstock. Governments are reluctant to fund rail, ports, and power until projects reach financial close. Each actor behaves rationally in isolation. Collectively, the system stalls.

The response from major economies is unambiguous. In early 2026, the United States formally acknowledged it lacked access to a sufficiently secure supply chain for processed critical minerals. The EU has accelerated domestic processing. Australia is repositioning as a value-added supplier. Across Latin America, governments are reassessing how much processing margin stays in-country. Similar dynamics are explored in Moore Global’s analysis of energy and industrial transitions, including Africa: a Renewable Energy Powerhouse in Waiting and 5 Emerging Trends in Energy, Mining and Renewables. The question in each context is the same: who can design the coordination architecture that makes investment possible?

The Coordination Challenge

Concentration risk makes the problem acute. With the Democratic Republic of Congo accounting for roughly three-quarters of global cobalt output, a single jurisdiction dominating processing can create chokepoints, signalling the need for more nodes, redundancy, and better-designed linkages.

“Critical mineral shortages aren’t driven by a lack of resources, but by a failure to coordinate investment across mining, processing, infrastructure, and policy. We must learn to work together so the energy transition is able to scale and become the future we need it to be.”

David Tomasi – Moore Australia

The path forward is not more bilateral dealmaking. It is the deliberate construction of value-chain ecosystems: production schedules, processing capacity, infrastructure, financing, and regulatory frameworks coordinated across jurisdictions. Infrastructure aggregation, where multiple projects share rail, port, and power costs, makes investment viable. Long-term offtake agreements with credible pricing floors make it financeable. Standardised traceability frameworks give producers access to buyers who require proof of origin, labour standards, and emissions trajectories, a theme also reflected in It Is Not Easy Going Green, So Let’s Focus on Practical Steps Rather Than Arbitrary Targets.

Advisers with cross-jurisdictional experience can assist in structuring such coordinated frameworks, reducing risk and enabling timely project execution.

Sustainability as a Market Condition

From a sustainability perspective, critical minerals are not peripheral to the energy transition, they are rather foundational to it. Renewable power generation and grid electrification are significantly more mineral-intensive than traditional fossil systems. Copper is embedded across wind, solar, grid reinforcement, and electrified infrastructure, while lithium and cobalt are central to battery storage and electric mobility.

At the same time, the oil and gas transition, including electrified offshore platforms, carbon capture, and hydrogen, also relies heavily on critical minerals. Without secure and responsibly governed supply chains, both renewable expansion and broader transition strategies face real constraints. The tools are operational. Battery-electric haulage is running at industrial scale. Solar-plus-storage is competitive with diesel for remote sites even before carbon pricing. Water stewardship and community impact, consistently underestimated, determine whether projects retain their social licence over the long term.

“Even if sodium-ion batteries reduce lithium demand in parts of the EV market, this will be offset by accelerating demand from AI, digitalisation, data centres and advanced computing infrastructure, all of which rely heavily on critical minerals.”

Paul Callaghan – Moore Global Energy Sector Leader

Sustainability is no longer a reporting obligation. It is a condition of market access. A weak emissions profile translates into wider financing spreads, tighter covenants, and restricted access to capital. Decarbonisation is part of the bankability case, not a phase two consideration.

Producers who integrate sustainability into operational and financial planning with guidance from advisory experts will be better positioned for market access and investor confidence.

“Coordinated planning — linking mining, processing, infrastructure, and long-term offtake — reduces both commercial and sustainability risk, enabling credible, investable ecosystems that connect resources, renewables, communities, and capital markets.”

Mark Stewart – Moore Global Sustainability Services Sector Leader

Where Value Compounds

Real value in critical minerals compounds in processing, not extraction. Zambia’s push toward cobalt sulphate production and Australia’s downstream lithium investments show jurisdictions competing to capture the value-add step. Processing clusters also reduce unit costs and make industrial policy credible.

The Next Three to Five Years

Corridors and processing capacity are being developed. The winners will be those who can quickly align infrastructure, processing, financing, and standards to secure a place in the new supply chains.

The bottleneck is not technology or capital, but coordinated action across stakeholders, who benefit collectively but hesitate individually when moving first carries risk. Advisers who understand the commercial, regulatory, and jurisdictional dynamics across these markets can make the structural difference between a project that stalls and one that closes.

Those who can build ecosystems that align mines, processing, infrastructure, and long-term contracts will not only supply the energy transition but also influence how its value is realised. Leveraging Moore Global’s sector and service expertise, clients are positioned to capture this value and strengthen their strategic presence in critical minerals markets worldwide.